Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
